Some readers may think that I am taking an alarmist stance regarding the El Niño phenomenon expected for the middle and end of this year. However, the numbers speak for themselves. Until a few weeks ago, the probability of occurrence was estimated at 61%, but in its most recent update, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised this probability to nearly 80%, which evidences an increasingly precise climate trend regarding the possibilities of occurrence. This increase is not a coincidence; it is the result of constant monitoring of anomalies in the sea surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific and the atmospheric patterns associated with the ENSO phenomenon.
The reality is that the year 2026 is showing us that the climate no longer responds to traditional calendars. The seasons are becoming increasingly variable, and extreme events are more frequent and intense. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change is increasing climate variability and the intensity of phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, which directly impacts agricultural and livestock planning. The rules of the game have changed, and what worked for our parents and grandparents requires an urgent update based on technical information and climate management tools.
We have already talked about impactful strategies, but there is something we often overlook in the midst of preparing for drought: what do we do now, while it is still raining? How do we take advantage of these weeks of abundant water to build the resilience we will need in July? Here lies the opportunity: we are in a unique time window where every planning decision we make today will determine our production capacity in the coming months. It is not just about surviving the current rains or preparing for El Niño; it is about designing a transition strategy that turns the climate challenge into a competitive advantage.
Allow me to show you how, by planning this transition intelligently, it is possible to take a step forward in how we can face what is to come.
The Transition Window: Understanding Our Current Moment
According to statistics, the El Niño event is expected to occur between June and August; here is the crucial point for our planning: we have approximately 60 to 90 days between the current rainy period and the drier future. This transition window is not a period of passive waiting; it is the most important time of the year to make strategic decisions.
The key question is not "When will it stop raining?" but "What am I doing now with all this water to ensure my production when it is scarce?" The difference between a farm that thrives in the second half of the year and one that suffers is decided in these weeks of April and the coming weeks of May.
To successfully navigate this transition, we need to work in three areas simultaneously: water capture and storage, adjustment of planting calendars, and soil preparation to withstand both excess and scarcity.
Coffee: Planning Harvests for the Second Half of the Year
Coffee presents us with a particular planning challenge during this transition. The current rains have altered the expected flowering patterns for January-February, meaning we need to rethink our harvest calendar for the second half of the year.
Germán Bahamón, general manager of the National Federation of Coffee Growers, explains that without the proper water stress in January-February, flowering is delayed or dispersed, which directly impacts the harvest in October-November-December. But this does not mean we lose the year; it means we need to adjust our planning.
Planning Decisions for Coffee Growers Now
First Decision: Water Capture for Strategic Irrigation
During these rainy weeks, every liter of water we manage to capture represents a strategic reserve for the water management of the crop. This availability will later allow for controlled water stress conditions and subsequently apply timely irrigations that favor more uniform flowering in coffee plants.
Storage systems such as tanks that collect water from the roofs of processing facilities, drying patios, or hillside runoff are proving fundamental to improving productive resilience against climate variability.
Investing in these systems during the months of April and May can translate into significant benefits in June and July, when strategic soil moisture management allows for synchronized flowering, especially in situations where it has not been optimal.
Second Decision: Temporal Harvest Diversification
If we have a variety of plots at different elevations, we can plan for flowering (and therefore harvesting) to be distributed over time. This requires weekly monitoring of each plot and specific management adjustments. What flowers now will be harvested in September; what manages to flower in June will be harvested in February-March 2027.
Third Decision: Anticipated Nutrition
With the soil still moist, it is the ideal time for nutrient applications that will be well incorporated. But we must plan nutrition considering two scenarios: the current needs of the plant under rain, and the needs it will have when water stress arrives.
Rice: Planting Calendar to Maximize the Second Half of the Year
In 2026, approximately 1,400 hectares of rice were affected by the rains in Córdoba, Bolívar, and Sucre (0.3% of the national area). But beyond the current losses, the planning question is: when and where do we plant for the second half?
Colombia has over 1.1 million tons of rice in inventory, ensuring supply. This gives us room to be strategic rather than reactive with our planting decisions.
Planning Decisions for Rice Growers Now
First Decision: Identify Optimal Planting Windows
Instead of planting by traditional calendar, it is ideal to use 30-90 day climate forecasts to identify the best windows. If we expect drier conditions starting in July, we need to calculate backward: when should I plant so that my critical grain filling period does not coincide with the peak of El Niño?
For areas like Tolima and Huila, this could mean advancing plantings to late May-June, taking advantage of the last rains for germination but ensuring that grain filling occurs in September-October when we could have some rains again.
Second Decision: Drainage Infrastructure and Dual Irrigation
During these rainy weeks, it is the time to improve drainage systems. But smart planning goes beyond that: the same drainage channels that now remove excess water can, with minor modifications, serve to bring water when we need it in July-August.
One idea could be the construction of reversible gates that allow draining now and irrigating later. This dual infrastructure is costly, but it pays off in a single cycle when it allows you to maintain production.
Third Decision: Selection of Varieties by Cycle
Now is the time to plan which varieties we will plant in the second half. Short-cycle varieties (100-110 days) can take advantage of a narrow window between the end of the rains and the start of El Niño. Long-cycle varieties require greater water availability and could be reserved for areas with assured irrigation.
Cattle: Planning for Forages and Water Reserves
Cattle farming faces perhaps the most complex planning challenge: how to feed and hydrate animals during months of scarcity. Projections indicate that rains will be below normal in much of the country from July to September.
The key is to convert today's water and pastures into forage and reserves available for tomorrow.
Planning Decisions for Cattle Farmers Now
First Decision: Silage and Hay Production During Abundance
Now, while the pastures grow vigorously with the rains, it is the time to produce reserves. Every kilo of silage or hay we produce in April-May is a kilo we won’t have to buy at inflated prices in August-September.
Smart planning involves calculating: how many animals do I have? How many days of drought do I need to cover? How much silage do I need to produce now to cover that period? An adult bovine consumes approximately between 12 and 15 kg of dry matter per day, which is equivalent to 2–3% of its live weight. If a drought period of 90 days is planned for a herd of 50 animals, the total forage requirement would be between 54 and 67.5 tons of dry matter. Considering losses during harvest, storage, and supply, estimated between 10% and 20%, it is recommended to have approximately 60 to 80 tons of dry matter available to ensure the herd's feeding throughout the dry period.
Second Decision: Water Storage Infrastructure
The 4,000 cattle farmers who have implemented silvopastoral systems by planting 3.5 million trees are discovering another benefit: trees help retain water in the soil. But this must be complemented with infrastructure.
Now is the time to build or expand reservoirs, ponds, and runoff water capture systems. Every cubic meter of storage capacity we build now is guaranteed water for July.
Third Decision: Scheduled Pasture Rotation
Planning must include a rotation scheme that allows some pastures to rest and accumulate biomass during May-June, to have pasturable reserves in July-August. This requires calculating carrying capacity per pasture and scheduling rotations 90 days in advance.
Avocado and Fruit Trees:
Avocado forces us to plan thinking in years, not months. Research indicates that for areas like northern Antioquia and Magdalena Medio, there are optimal conditions, while Tolima and Huila are already facing water scarcity. This transition window is critical for designing the water plan for the second half of the year.
Planning Decisions for Fruit Growers
First Decision: Calculation of Crop Water Needs
A mature avocado tree needs between 1,000 and 1,200 millimeters of rain per year. If we know that from July to September we could have precipitation deficits, we need to calculate how much water will be lacking and how we will compensate for it.
Practical Example:
If a drought occurs for 12 weeks, the water requirement during this period is equivalent to a layer of approximately 230 to 277 mm. Considering that not the entire hectare is effective for the crop due to the presence of streets and ditches, and assuming 80% of usable area, the necessary volume of water would be between 1,840 and 2,216 m³ per hectare. For a density of 300 trees, this represents between 6,100 and 7,400 liters per tree. Adjusting for a 90% efficiency in the drip irrigation system, it is recommended to store between 2,000 and 2,500 m³ of water per hectare to guarantee supply during the dry period.
Second Decision: Investment in Drip Irrigation Systems
During these rainy weeks, while the soil is workable, it is the ideal time to install or expand drip irrigation systems. The investment is justified because these systems can reduce water consumption by up to 60% compared to gravity irrigation.
Soil moisture sensors that send alerts to mobile devices allow for optimizing every drop. The technology exists, it is accessible, and the difference between watering by intuition and watering with data can mean the difference between losing or saving the harvest.
Third Decision: Scheduling Pruning and Fertilization
Avocado planning includes deciding now what agronomic practices we will carry out before the drought arrives. Important prunings should be completed in May-June, when the tree still has enough water to recover. Foliar nutrient applications are more effective when the plant is not stressed.
Soil Planning
While we talk about water and calendars, there is a factor that is often underestimated in planning: the soil.
A healthy soil is your best insurance against both climate extremes.
During these weeks of abundant rain, the soil is receiving a "stress test." Compacted soils, with little organic matter, become waterlogged, lose structure, and wash away nutrients. Healthy soils absorb excess and store it for later release.
Smart planning includes investing now to improve your soil's ability to behave like a sponge throughout the year.
Concrete Soil Planning Actions
To implement in April-May (while there is moisture):
- Incorporation of organic matter (compost, green manures) when the soil is workable.
- Sowing of cover crops that protect the soil and add biomass.
- Application of amendments that improve structure and water retention.
- Establishment of living barriers or covers that reduce rain erosion.
The investment calculation:
Improving the soil's water retention capacity by 1% can mean retaining an additional 10-15 mm of water per meter of depth. In one hectare, this equates to 100-150 cubic meters of "stored" water in the soil profile, available for plants during drought.
Compared to building a reservoir of that capacity, improving the soil is often more economical and has additional benefits in plant nutrition and health.
With Harvis, you can anticipate and create plans for your production system; you are still in time to make better decisions that allow you to be more resilient. Remember that Harvis is an ecosystem that integrates climate alert systems and bases its recommendations on your records and the history of your agricultural business.
The Time is Now
We cannot control when it rains or when water is scarce. But we can control how we prepare for both scenarios.
The question is not whether El Niño will arrive or not in the second half. The question is: when it arrives, will you be in crisis or in control?
Your 90-day plan starts today. Every day that passes without acting is water that goes to waste through runoff, forage that grows and is lost, an opportunity for preparation that disappears.
You already know the strategies for El Niño. Now you have the plan for the transition; all that is left is your decision to implement it.
REFERENCES CONSULTED
- Guerrero, O.J. & Ruiz, J.F. (March, 2026). Short, Medium, and Long-Term Climate Prediction Report in Colombia. IDEAM. https://bart.ideam.gov.co/wrfideam/new_modelo/CPT/informe/Informe.pdf
- - National Institute of Health. (March, 2026). Climate and Health Bulletin - Edition No. 03. https://www.ins.gov.co/BibliotecaDigital/boletin-clima-y-salud-marzo-2026.pdf
- - Noticias RCN. (February 19, 2026). Colombian coffee production and export will fall in 2026 due to the rains. https://www.noticiasrcn.com/colombia/produccion-y-exportacion-de-cafe-colombiano-caera-en-2026-a-causa-de-las-lluvias-fedecafeteros-993427
- - Pulzo. (January 13, 2026). Rains in Risaralda threaten flowering and coffee production in 2026. https://www.pulzo.com/economia/lluvias-en-risaralda-amenazan-la-floracion-y-produccion-de-cafe-en-2026-alertan-caficultores-PP4991099A
- - Redagrícola. (January 14, 2026). Persistence of rains threatens the development of coffee crops in the department of Risaralda. https://redagricola.com/persistencia-de-las-lluvias-amenaza-el-desarrollo-de-los-cultivos-de-cafe-en-el-departamento-de-risaralda/
- - La República. (February 20, 2026). Almost 6,000 tons of rice from the first harvest will not be harvested due to heavy rains. https://www.larepublica.co/economia/casi-6-000-toneladas-de-arroz-de-la-primera-cosecha-no-saldrian-por-fuertes-aguaceros-4331606
- - Nación Paisa. (February 18, 2026). Alert of rice shortage in Colombia. https://www.nacionpaisa.com/minagricultura-alerta-desabastecimiento-arroz-2026-inundaciones-cordoba-mojana/
- - Infobae. (February 21, 2026). La Mojana is drowning and rice is on the line. https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2026/02/21/la-mojana-se-ahoga-y-el-arroz-queda-en-la-cuerda-floja-asi-crece-el-choque-entre-productores-y-gobierno/
- - Infobae. (March 26, 2026). Colombia would go from floods to drought in 2026. https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2026/03/26/colombia-pasaria-de-inundaciones-a-sequia-en-2026-las-autoridades-lanzan-alerta-por-la-llegada-de-el-nino/
- - CONtexto Ganadero. (September 2, 2025). How will the climate behave in Colombia between May and July 2025? https://www.contextoganadero.com/regiones/como-se-comportara-el-clima-en-colombia-entre-mayo-y-julio-de-2025
- - Redagrícola. (January 31, 2025). Colombia could lose up to 35% of avocado production due to climate change. https://redagricola.com/colombia-perderia-hasta-un-35-de-produccion-de-aguacate-por-el-cambio-climatico/
- - Redagrícola. (May 15, 2023). Key aspects for establishing avocado cultivation in Colombia. https://redagricola.com/aspectos-claves-para-la-instalacion-del-cultivo-de-aguacate-en-colombia/
- - Semana. (March 31, 2024). This is how agriculture and livestock respond to the challenge of climate change. https://www.semana.com/mejor-colombia/articulo/asi-responden-la-agricultura-y-la-ganaderia-al-desafio-del-cambio-climatico/202410/
- - UPRA. (January, 2026). Action Plan 2026. https://upra.gov.co/sites/default/files/2026-01/Plan%20de%20acci%C3%B3n%20Institucional%20UPRA%202026%20V.1.pdf